How to Win a Nobel Prize:An Interview With Stein Tønnesson

Stein Tønnesson, the director of the International Peace Research Institute in Oslo, made waves earlier this week when he predicted jailed Chinese dissident Hu Jia might win this year's Nobel Peace Prize. He's not affiliated with the Nobel organization, though like officials at other peace groups he offers nominations to the Nobel committee. Each year he publishes his best guess on who might win, though that person isn't necessarily the same as his own nominee or favorite candidate.

We caught up with Tønnesson to learn about why Hu tops his list, and how to game the decision-making process of the secretive Nobel committee.

 WSJ: Why did Hu Jia top your list?

Tønnesson: It is probably a year when one would want to give a prize to someone who is related to a human rights issue. Since 2003, there has not been a clear human rights prize, and this year we are having the 60th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

So I started looking for people who are either human rights activists or are persecuted. When I put the Chinese dissident on top, it was for two reasons. One, the only Chinese who has ever received the Nobel Peace Prize is the Dalai Lama, who does not even reside in China. The committee must surely have tried to look for good Chinese candidates. For many years, I speculated that the mothers of the Tiananmen Square protesters would win, but they did not. Then there was Harry Wu. But there hasn't been any obvious candidate.

In the past few years, I have not predicted a Chinese dissident would win because the Nobel Committee would probably be reticent about disturbing China before the Olympics. If a Chinese was given the prize just at a time when the nation's sentiments were geared towards this big national moment, it would probably be badly perceived.

But now China has had the Olympics and it was a great success. Now China would be able to afford and meet such criticism.

WSJ: Has the Prize ever gone to somebody currently in prison?

Tønnesson: Carl von Ossietzky in 1935 had been imprisoned in Nazi Germany, which lead to violent outbursts from Hitler. He issued a prohibition against any German receiving the Nobel Peace Prize.

Then in 1991 Aung San Suu Kyi won after she had been arrested.

WSJ: Choosing Hu Jia would certainly anger the Chinese government. Would the Nobel committee want to do that?

Tønnesson: The committee is constituted of the people selected by the Norwegian parliament. They are veteran politicians, or people a little bit on the margins of the political party that they represent. They operate completely independently of the government, and the parliament does not interfere with the discussions.

Some committees are bold and some are not. The committee that gave the prize to Carl von Ossietzky was very courageous. The committee that refrained from giving the prize to Mahatma Gandhi was motivated by some concerns about British reaction. That was a cowardly committee.

The present committee has been criticized for having awarded the prize to relatively uncontroversial persons who often work on issues that are not directly related to peace. They have widened the prize to include many areas, but have not really given a prize that caused a lot of protest around the world.

WSJ: Has Hu Jia done work that touches on or improves enough lives to warrant a Peace Prize?

Tønnesson: He is very young. He has also been involved in some anti-Japanese demonstrations. That would be a drawback.

But on the other hand, I haven't really seen other candidates that are outstanding in a Chinese context that have the same kind of moral quality that he has. Many have fallen into exile, which makes them less eligible…

We had some debate at our Institute. Some of my colleagues say the committee will probably want to issue the prize to a dissident in an authoritarian regime only if that regime is moving in the authoritarian direction. China has been in a way improving, though perhaps there was some setback during the Olympics, which maybe was only nervousness with this big event… My colleagues say the committee would be more likely to award the Prize to a country that is becoming more and more repressive, such as Russia, as a kind of protest against this and a way of drawing the world's attention to these negative developments.

WSJ: What has been the success rate of your predictions?

Tønnesson: I was right in predicting Kim Dae Jung in 2000. Then I was right about the UN and Kofi Annan in 2001. By that time I had stopped predicting Jimmy Carter, so was surprised in 2002. I never even had the idea for 2003 and 2004. I had the International Atomic Energy Agency and Mohamed ElBaradei up high on my list in 2005, so I was at least half right. I was completely surprised when Muhammad Yunus got the prize in 2006, despite the fact that I had nominated Yunus myself on behalf of someone else. I was right on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Al Gore which got so much attention last year.

–Geoffrey A. Fowler

http://blogs.wsj.com/chinajournal/2008/09/26/how-to-win-a-nobel-prize-an-interview-with-stein-t%c3%b8nnesson/

 

余盛峰：真正的英雄主义只有一种

真正的英雄主义只有一种，就是看清这个世界的本来面目，并且去热爱它。――罗曼・罗兰

    长这么大，遇到的人很多，遇到的牛人也不少。但是，他却是我所见过的，特别有人格魅力的一位。他不是商界的大腕，不是政界的权重，也不是文化界的先进。其实，不过是一个普通的人而已。如果按照世俗的标准，甚至可能是一个失败者。我是一个经常倾向怀疑的人，所谓名人，接触的多一点，就会发现，其实不过如此。人模狗样的，也不在少数。

   

    我只和他生活过一个星期。那个星期里，我和我的一帮兄弟，和他一起做了一件这一辈子都会永远记取的事情。我也忘不了，那个星期的某天晚上，一帮人，一人蹬着一辆自行车，在乌漆抹黑的夜里，跌跌撞撞又亢奋地突进在田间的小道上。以至于，我甚至差点直接骑进了河里。那个寂静的村庄，那个神秘的夜和神秘的河，荒诞而奇妙的骑行经历，那些喧嚷那些掷地有声的陈述和宣言，如今变得模糊又变得如此清晰，甚至，带上了一些虚幻和游离。 

    我和我的兄弟们，后来散落于不一样的城市里，从商的从商，结婚的结婚，投笔的投笔，但我知道，他们与我一样，都一定不会在他们的记忆里，丢失掉关于那个村庄的记忆。他们可能也不会忘记，我们的撤离，我们与这个顶天立地的男人的告别，以及后来我们互有默契的不去谈及，其实，不过是些心中懦弱的因素作怪，不过，我们没有勇气去承认，更不用说，我们根本就没有坚持持久行动的勇气。从生活的某个层面退回来，获得一些既定的安全感，是策略，也是保全。然后，慢慢的，开始沾染和模仿城市里一般成功人士的习气，将自己的言语和行为向这些人靠拢。 

    这么多年，我们就是这么过来的，其中唯一未变的，从来未变的，只有这一位我肃然起敬的前辈，一位只有极少数人所知悉的英雄，一位屹立于民间，一直以他的身体和精神在捍卫社会良知和正义的英雄。在遇见我们之前，在遇见我们之后，只有他，从未因为我们的进入和离去，从未因为任何人与事具体的变迁而真正改变他从来行动的方向。 

   他有一个美满的家庭，有一位知书达礼而美丽的妻子，也有一个与我们年龄相仿继承了父亲心性的儿子，只是，我仍觉得，他或许仍然是孤独的。相对于他十多年来的行动，我不敢想象一个没有很大孤独感而又时时在承接这些孤独感的男人，可以仍然在坚持他所坚持的行动。孤独着而不断承担着这些孤独的人，才能真正养成可怖的硬度来。多半的人，一旦理想与现实有了距离，要么自怨自艾，要么怨天尤人，到最后，甚至变成一个自我想象的受迫害者。而能像他，脸上始终带着一种既忧虑又极其淡定神情的，所未从见。我至今熟悉那种神情，坚毅、忧虑，而又淡定慷慨，这或许只有先秦时的燕赵之士身上有。 

    明知不可而为之，我很早就知道这句话，却只是知道罢了，或许当时自信理解的透，只是，见了他之后，我才开始真正理解这句话。只是可能仍没有理解，而只有他这个人本身，或许才能演绎出这句话的真意来。一般世间的人如我，即使经常要装出一副不同寻常的姿态来，却仍旧只是装出来的，到了真正的关口，却未必真正经得住考验。像我们这些一般的人，就只有继续啖食他苦力而默默行动所造成的一些关于人的尊严和责任的证明。 

    我不知道，我此刻在写的这些东西，是否仍旧只是些廉价的自我安抚。因为，在那条前不见永久光明而周遭却经常遍布陷阱和恐怖的路上，却只有他一个人孤单的身影走，即使我们曾如某些人一样，因为各种公共或私人的动机，而暂时进入他所在的世界里，却总是要在某个时刻匆匆逃离。他见得惯了，他一开始就打算即使只有他一个人在走，那也是要继续往前走。所以，他宽容我们所有可能的动机，而欢迎我们的进入，也绝不做任何的导引与挽留。相濡以沫，相忘于江湖。只是，他的忘，绝不是和我们的忘在一个层次的。 

    我们在人生的路上，总是经常去忘记一些东西，关于爱情，关于欢乐，关于痛苦，或许是深刻的，也可能是些浅薄的层次，忘了，是要卸去罪责，而更好逃跑到更广大的地方，去酝酿一轮新的获取。我们假装着自己不再记得那些事情。不然的话，我们甚至无法自如的呼吸。其实，很多时候，只是因为所要追求的和我们预期的有距离，所以，我们选择一种放弃，而放弃其中的风险和责任，忘记，然后好开始一段新的经过改造的生活。其中，或许仍然是一种向善的追求，也可能只是一种假装为向善的旅程。之所以要假装，不过是因为保持一致和连贯能敷衍内心脆弱的尊严。我们永远可以是安全的，因为我们为自己永远地保持了撤离的权利。 

   不管如何，终究还是忘记了，并且忘记了很久。中间不是没有经常地记起，事实上，在我们离开后不久，我就从《南方周末》的头版获知，他因为某些为民代表的举动，而被一个小干部殴打了。在权力的链条上，仅仅是一个龌龊的小喽罗，就可以任意对一个在精神上如此博大的人挥动拳头！我不知道他还击了没有，他是一条硬汉，单挑的话一定能撩翻对方。但他又很可能没有如此，不是不敢，也不是不能，而只是为了一个超越于他个人身体的更广大的人群的身体和幸福，他还是会选择将自己的身体来直接承担这暴力。如果由他的这种承受，可以因此创造多一点降低暴力的可能，他就会选择去做。对于自己，他从来不是理性主义者，而一旦超越于他的个体，他马上就会是一个冷静的可怕的理性主义者。我无法想象，就在数日之前，我还与他鲜活地朝夕相处，我无法容忍一个如此令自己感觉自我卑小的人，会被一个来自权力末端的龌龊的猪猡殴打！我只知道，我当时就想他妈的用最私人的方式，最阴的方法，把猪猡抓起来往死里海扁一顿。 

   不管如何，终究还是忘记了，并且忘记了很久。几次想给他电话或是信件，却总是没有行动，除了几次过年的贺卡。可能，我甚至没有勇气去接受他被殴打，以及后来竞选失败的现实。更深的，是我甚至没有勇气去知晓他的现状，他一定仍然是一个全副的勇者形象，甚至还会试图让一个担忧他现状的人变得勇敢一点，我觉得，仅仅这点，可能会更多加深他内心本已翻腾的痛楚，虽则他自己不这么想。关键的是，我的那一点廉价的关注，不过仍旧是些廉价的什物罢了。真正为他能做些什么东西呢？到头不过还是在考虑个人的前途个人的安全个人的得失罢了。真正能为他能做些什么东西呢？可能，他一开始就决定，不管周围有没有其他人，他还是会去做这一切，不管未来的前景如何，即使未来甚至可能带来他的毁灭，他都决计一个人去走，他甚至都不愿任何没有真正准备好的人去和他走同样的路。尽管，如果多一个人，多一些人，他可以走得更温暖一点，走的更有奔头些，走的更光明，就如那个一起骑自行车奔袭在黑暗村庄的夜晚。我不知道，他对于人性的看法是怎么样的，如果他希望以他的身行能唤起一般所有的良知和行动，该是多少乐观的，而他决计虽千万人，却仍旧要往前走，是否底色就是那淡淡的一抹悲凉？ 

   不管如何，终究还是忘记了，并且忘记了很久。直到前不久，我从别人口中知晓，他已经失踪了。失踪当然不是自己走失的，像他这般认定了路就死不悔改的人，决计不会有迷路的可能。他的失踪是秘密的，而秘密只有秘密的组织才能造成。久在安逸的环境里，我已经逐渐丧失了体验恐惧的能力。只是，这获知消息的一刻，我突然感觉到一种莫名的荒诞的恐惧感。荒诞在于，你甚至难以让自己正经地相信，一个你所曾眼见的如此清晰可爱的人，就在这世界的可以感知的层面上消失了。像一阵风，轻轻飘过，却不在空气中留下一丝痕迹。荒诞也在于，它甚至让你不愿再去证实，不管是真是假，你既不愿相信也愿意相信，于是，让它自生自灭。只是，在我们的记忆里，曾经留下的那么一些涟漪，却速速地被抚平被剿灭。于是，那些记忆，被若无其事地安置在我们的脑海里，却永远只是那么不痛不痒地停留在那里，而永远再也无法真正翻转身来。 

   不管如何，终究还是忘记了，并且忘记了很久。听到消息的时候，突然之间，我甚至丧失了表达姿态的能力。我一面努力装出关注的样子，一面试图表现自己的强烈愤慨，但我又明显察觉到这些情绪都是自己刻意从某些层面调动出来的。我心里是装着很多的悲痛的，却又无法从失踪这个字眼里联系起具体的悲伤的程度。我想，我完了，我一定在某些地方出了问题。 

   北京的冬天来了，屋里却还是有暖气。只是，在这温暖的所在之外，却是否仍有那一块阴冷黑暗而潮湿的所在，沉重地压在我们的肉身之上？

   

   

                                                                                             请各位朋友记住这名世间真英雄 姚立法 先生 

                             余盛峰2007.11.23夜暨晨 于清华园

Chinese dissident tipped to win Nobel peace prize

Hu Jia could be awarded the Nobel peace prize to continue human rights pressure on China after the Beijing Olympics

 

This year's Nobel peace prize will most likely be awarded to a Chinese dissident to highlight China's human rights record in the wake of the Olympic Games, according to experts who closely follow the workings of the award.

 

A likely candidate to receive the prize, the winner of which will be announced on October 10 in Oslo, is Hu Jia, a Chinese activist who has campaigned on democracy, the environment and the rights of HIV/Aids patients. Hu is serving three-and-a-half years in jail for "inciting to subvert state power".

 

"The prize will go this year to a Chinese dissident and I believe the most likely [recipient] will be Hu Jia, perhaps together with his wife [Zeng Jinyan]," said Stein Toennesson, director of the International Peace Research Institute in Oslo, and a close observer of the peace prize. "He has become the most well known Chinese dissident now and it has been a very long time since anyone [related to China] has won the prize." The last occasion was the Dalai Lama in 1989.

 

Experts said the Norwegian Nobel committee, the secretive five-strong body that awards the prize yearly, would see the passing of the Olympic Games as an opportunity to highlight China's human rights record, especially in a year marking the 60th anniversary of the universal declaration of human rights.

 

"There was a lot of repression during the Olympic Games. Now is a golden opportunity to underline that repression is unacceptable," said Janne Haaland Matlary, a professor of international relations at the University of Oslo, and a previous candidate to be a member of the Nobel committee.

 

Since the Tiananmen Square uprising in 1989, "it has become more and more difficult to criticise China as it became more forceful and powerful," said Toennesson. "It has also been an argument not to disturb the run-up to the Olympics because it will be of momentous importance not only for the regime, but also for the Chinese people."

 

Some 164 invididuals and 33 organisations are nominated for this year's prize, including Bob Geldof, Vladimir Putin and the Esperanto language. The committee does not publish the names of nominees but those who can nominate, including parliamentarians, former laureates and academics, can choose to reveal their choices.

 

The committee could choose to honour Thich Quang Do, a Vietnamese Buddhist monk who has been fighting for religious freedom and democracy in the Communist nation. "He has been a systematic opponent to the regime," said Toennesson.

 

The Chechen human rights lawyer Lydia Yusupova is another contender. "It would be an opportunity to focus on Russia at a time of increased interest following the conflict with Georgia," said Matlary.

 

Morgan Tsvangirai could be honoured "because he has stuck to non-violent means to bring about regime change against Robert Mugabe," said Toennesson. But he added: "It would be perhaps too risky to give it to him now that he is PM."

 

Another name mentioned is Ingrid Betancourt, who could be honoured for "maintaining, despite her ordeal, that political transformation must happen through peaceful and democratic means" in a country - Colombia - that is living through the world's longest running civil war.

 

The committee could decide to name a journalist or media organisation. "Good news coverage, as opposed to propaganda or inaccurate reports, can be essential to peace," the secretary of the Nobel committee, Professor Geir Lundestad, previously told the Guardian. He mentioned possible contenders such as CNN, the New York Times, Le Monde or El Pais.

 

Celebrity activists such as Bono and Geldof could be considered. "Celebrities have been able to raise international awareness on issues such as Darfur and put pressure on China over its relationship with the Sudanese government," said Toennesson.

 

The prize is announced in October each year, and the award ceremony takes place in December in Oslo. Last year's winners were Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

 

杨恒均小小说：《母亲，你背叛了我》

年轻的护士害怕地退到一边，中年护士试了两次，都没有办法把孩子弄过来。

年轻的母亲把孩子抱得更紧，让孩子的小脸贴住自己的胸脯。

你们说，他象我吧。母亲说，抬头茫然的看着护士。中年护士同情地点点头，年轻的母亲看到有人回应她，咧嘴一笑。

去年八月生下他，有七斤二两，邻里羡慕得很，他们说这孩子长大一定可以去当兵，到时可以派到台湾去解放台湾，还可以派到西藏去平叛。这是他爸爸说的，他爸爸就是想让孩子长大了当兵，你们说他土不土？母亲一边摇晃着怀里的一岁的孩子，一边滔滔不绝地讲，旁边的医生和护士静静地看着他。

我才不想他长大了当兵呢，现在干什么不好？不过呀，他这么壮，不当兵保家卫国实在有些可惜，再说，我们农村人，当兵也是一条好出路。年轻的母亲说到这里，端详了一会孩子的脸，噗哧地笑了一声。有人说，如果当武警，还可以在我们国家火炬传递时到国外去保护火炬，我想也是的呀，那多威风，――可是，保护火炬比火炬手还威风吗？哈，我这才想起来，我可以培养他当运动员，为国增光也为我们村子增光！

年轻的母亲说到这里，呼地站了起来，惊惶地看了怀里孩子一眼，又一屁股坐下。那位中年护士看她站起来，想过去扶持一下，看到她又坐下，只好又退到旁边。

我要让他长大了为国增光！母亲自豪地说，要让世界上的坏人都知道，我们中国人不是好欺负的。母亲说到这里眼泪突然流了下来，我是想让他从小就有爱国热情，所以，五个月前，虽然他还那么小，还什么都不懂，我就带他到抵制家乐福的商场门前感受那种气氛，就是在那里，我知道了什么叫国货、什么叫美国货、日货和法货，从那时起，我就暗暗发誓，爱国不能靠一时激情，要抵制外国货，就要从小做起。我回家检查了那些奶粉罐子，发现他那在深圳打工的爸爸带回来的奶粉竟然都是外国货，我很气愤。从那时起，我就开始买国货，我要买三鹿、伊犁和蒙牛牌奶粉！喝国产奶粉的孩子长大了一定会报效母亲……啊，我不是说的我这个母亲，我说的是祖国母亲，你们别误会。

说这话时，年轻的母亲脸上闪过一丝羞涩。但只是一闪而逝。当她抬起头时，大家都发现她眼中的悲壮之情。她扫了一眼周围的人，又突然低下头，在孩子的小脸上亲了一口，又亲了一口，她嘴巴亲小脸蛋的声音在每一个人心上都重重地敲了一锤。失神的她喃喃的自语，孩子，你快点长大――

年轻的护士实在看不下去，转过头悄悄擦泪，中年护士忍住眼泪，脸上换上职业的冷漠，走了过去，想把孩子接过来。年轻的妈妈却警惕的抱紧怀里的孩子，喊道，你要干什么？

中年护士说，你的孩子已经……

我们需要给他做治疗！中年护士的话突然被站起来的医生打断了，医生一直在评估这位年轻母亲的神经，他想，任何人受到这个打击，都会陷入神志不清。这个时候，不能再刺激她了。于是医生说，你把孩子交给她。然后冲那个年轻的护士说，你陪这位母亲到外面去等。

年轻的母亲脸露喜色，可是就在她要把孩子交给中年护士的时候，她突然犹豫了，她看着怀里那个从来没有离开过自己的宝宝，眼中刹那闪现过犹豫、惊惶、悲伤和恐惧。她把孩子抱起来，看着伸手准备接孩子的中年护士，哀求地说，你能够治好他吧？

中年护士默默地点点头，伸手接过孩子，孩子还是热的，但她知道那是母亲的体温，孩子已经因为肾衰竭于三个小时前离开了人间。

孩子被接走了，年轻的母亲双手却无法收回来，她突然轻声的哭了起来，你别骗我，你真的能够治好他？你们刚才不是说他已经死了？你们能够救活他吧――我求求你们救救他，孩子还不会说话，我好像听他对我说一句话，求你们，一定要救活他，我想对他说一句话，求求你们――

中年护士原本已经抱着孩子转身了，但年轻母亲的话却让她停下脚步。她比谁都清楚，以这位母亲的精神状态，这孩子一旦送进太平间，母子可能再也无法见面了。她不忍心就这样带着孩子离开，她突然转身，脸上强装出笑容，说，啊，我刚刚听到孩子说话了！

真的！母亲欣喜若狂，立即松开年轻护士的手，冲过来，可是当她看到孩子那苍白的面孔，她木然了。中年护士轻声说，他现在累了，你别打搅他。可是我刚刚听见他说话了，他说"妈妈，我爱你"。

中年护士说完这句话，眼睛也湿润了，当护士这么多年，她还是第一次违反自己的职业规定，欺骗一个母亲。然而，她不会后悔，因为那个母亲听到这句话后，整个人放松下来，眼泪随即徐徐流下来，儿子，我也爱你，我就是怕你怪妈妈，妈妈知道你这一去，就不会回来了，妈妈对不起你……

杨恒均 2008-9-21 东莞

改弦更张

改到这里来筑小窝，今日就是开始。